Nigeria's index is up 33%. It's also built on 15 sales

OKN Nigeria closed its September 9, 2026 revision at 1,093.21, up 32.76% over the trailing year. That's the second-largest move of any live OKN index this vintage. It's also, by a wide margin, the thinnest.

What the data shows

Fifteen transactions and 116 valuations feed the current Nigeria vintage. Compare that to OKN South Africa, which is built on 341 transactions and 578 valuations in the same September 9 revision, and the difference in depth is stark: SA has roughly 23 times the transaction count behind a headline move that's smaller in percentage terms, up 20.65% against Nigeria's 32.76%.

The confidence band shows the consequence directly. Nigeria's range runs from 791.64 to 1,509.67 around a 1,093.21 print, a band wide enough to stretch from roughly flat year over year to nearly 51% up. SA's range, by contrast, runs from 1,228.10 to 1,582.17 around 1,393.94, proportionally far narrower. Same methodology, same base of 1,000, very different confidence.

The market context

Neither index publishes which individual sales fed a given vintage in a way this piece can independently verify by medium or venue, so no specific transaction can be named as a Nigeria-market driver here. What can be said is what the two indices measure: both are blend-v1 constructions on a shared USD base, which makes the percentage comparison fair even though the underlying markets, and the sample sizes behind them, are not.

What it means and what to watch

A 33% headline move on 15 transactions is a real number, not a fluke. It's also not yet a verdict on the depth or direction of the Nigerian market. Five more transactions in the next vintage could move this print meaningfully in either direction. Five more transactions in the SA vintage would barely move a 341-transaction base at all.

The honest read: Nigeria's index is the one to watch, not because it's proven anything yet, but because it's the OKN index most likely to move a lot on the next revision. South Africa's smaller headline number is, in a sense, the more settled read of the two, simply because more data sits under it.

Method note: figures are from the OKN Nigeria and OKN South Africa indices, methodology blend-v1, vintage 2026-09-09. Both index values lag the transactions and valuations that feed them and are subject to revision as later data arrives.